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ドル50%減価されるかも

 
再来週のG20で、差し迫った経済崩壊を避けるため、米国はG20により、少なくともドルを50%減価することを、期待されているとのこと
命令するのはG20側であり、米国は命令される側です。

あまりにもたくさん刷り過ぎたドルは、明らかに価値が低くなっているのです。
資源国ブラジルなどにとっては、価値が低くなったドルだと不公平に感じるのでしょう。

これは、米国にとっても輸出が奮うことになり、また何よりも膨大な借金が実質的に減ることを意味します。
まさに願ったり、叶ったりです。

私見ですが、近いうちに、プラザ合意のときのような、各国合意のうえでのドル切り下げがあるのかもしれません。
一方的に宣言されるデノミやデフォルトよりは、各国とも痛みは少ないはずです。


とすると、もちろん円は大きく買われるでしょうね。
50%減価というと、1ドル40円ということでしょうか?

まぁ、他の通貨との絡みもあるので、どのあたりに誘導するつもりなのかは分かりませんが。
いずれにせよ、舞台裏ではこんな話がされるはずです。


プラザ合意のときは、1ドル240円だったのを180円にするつもりが、いっきに飛び越えて120円になりました。
市場は、往々にして行過ぎるものです。

とすると、円はいったいどこまで高くなる???




翻訳はこちら
http://www.excite.co.jp/world/



Obama Set To Flee America As US Dollar Faces 50% Devaluation
http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1412.htm
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

A grim report prepared for Prime Minister Putin by Russian Ministry of Finance experts warns today that the United States is expected to be ordered by its G-20 counterparts at its October 21-23 meeting in South Korea to devalue the US Dollar by no less than 50% in order to stave off what is widely believed to be an imminent collapse of the World’s economic system.

The G20 was established in 1999, in the wake of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, to bring together major advanced and emerging economies to stabilize the Global financial market that by 1998 had catastrophically devastated the Russian economy causing a two-thirds devaluation of the Ruble that plunged millions of middle-class Russian citizens into instant poverty.

As the most important “cog”, so to speak, in the internal mechanisms that governs our every growing, and complex, Global economy, the “sands of time” have run out for the American Dollar being our World’s sole reserve currency, and which without its immediate devaluation threatens to spark an International currency war the likes of which have not been seen since the 1930’s, and as we can read as reported by London’s Telegraph News Service:

“States accounting for two-thirds of the global economy are either holding down their exchange rates by direct intervention or steering currencies lower in an attempt to shift problems on to somebody else, each with their own plausible justification. Nothing like this has been seen since the 1930s.”

To the grim task facing the G20 at their upcoming South Korean meet we can further read as reported by the Reuters News Service:

“Careful calibration of a U.S. dollar devaluation looks to be the only way to avert the sort of currency war flagged by Brazil and others, leaving G20 powers the unenviable task of agreeing some control of the process.

The top world economies, shaken by three years of financial turmoil, are scrambling to cap or weaken their currencies in a fight over fragile global demand for exports -- prompting retaliatory capital curbs and damaging trade rows.”

Prompting the G20’s urgency for a quick devaluation of the US Dollar before an all-out Global economic collapse are the growing retaliatory actions of its members against the American’s for the wholesale printing of money with nothing to back it up, and as we can, also, read as reported by the Reuters News Service:

“A drive by many of the world's economies to cap the strength of their currencies is gaining momentum, with Brazil firing the latest shot just days before world finance leaders meet in Washington.

Ultra-low interest rates in Europe and Japan and concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve is about to embark on another round of money printing that could weaken the dollar have pushed currencies to the top of the agenda for the gathering of finance chiefs from the Group of Seven rich nations Friday.”

Not just to the United States, either, are the fears of a Global economic collapse rising as reports from the United Kingdom are warning that their currency is, likewise, nearing collapse, and when coupled by the warning that Ireland is about to have its credit rating downgraded has prompted the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to acknowledge for the first time that the West is caught in a “near depression”.

Not being told to the American people about their coming Great Economic Collapse is that it is due to their Nation being effectively bankrupt with this years deficit adding $1.3 Trillion to a National debt of $13.5 Trillion, not to mention the unfunded liabilities for their Social Security and Medicare systems that are warned exceed $100 Trillion.

Though the average American citizen is being deceived by their propaganda media and government masters so as not to terrify them about what is about to happen, the same cannot be said of their elite classes who, according to another recent Reuters News Service report, are buying gold by the ton in such a frenzy to protect their obscene wealth they have raised the price of this precious metal to record highs with it gaining nearly $100.00 in the past month alone, and over $300.00 in the past year as it nears $1,400.00 an ounce, and according to Kenneth Rogoff, a Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, could very well reach $10,000.00 before all is “said and done”.

To the actions of America’s leader, President Barack Obama, as millions of his citizens face economic oblivion it is beyond our understanding as new reports state that he has accelerated the timeline of what will be his longest overseas trip to his leaving 2 days after what is expected to be a crushing defeat of his Democratic Party in the November Mid-Term election, and which shortly after his government will announce the catastrophic devaluation of the US Dollar wiping out the savings of an entire generation of his people.

The respected Christian Science Monitor, however, in their article titled “Obama as Roman emperor -- the rise and fall of the propaganda master” chilling portrays the American leader in terms that does make his actions understandable, and as we can, in part, read:

“To understand Obama's fall, we must understand his rise; and to do that, we must look to ancient history. It was neither for his resume nor his policies that America fell in love with him. In fact, Obama's policy priorities have turned out to be quite unpopular.

It was instead by following the lead of Rome's greatest emperors that Obama won (temporarily) America's awe and devotion. This sort of ruler cult begins to crumble, of course, when the ruler is required to make decisions and take positions under unprecedented media scrutiny.

In the art of self-promotion through images, Obama's closest parallels lived long before the age of YouTube and the 24-hour news cycle. Rome's first emperor, Augustus (63 BC ? AD 14), was a master of manipulating what “mass media” there was. Through the propagation of carefully crafted, semi-divine portrait types, vague but appealing buzzwords, and abstract association with heroes of the past, Augustus and his successors won the public's support.

Augustus' fixed “portrait-type” was disseminated and recreated for public consumption across the empire in the form of statues, coins, and other artworks. Archaeologist Paul Zanker's “Power of Images in the Age of Augustus” describes this contrived likeness as “a calm, elevated expression” marked by “a timeless and remote dignity” ? not unlike the blue-and-red portrait type designed for Obama by guerrilla-marketer Shepard Fairey.

Another portrait type of Obama's, created by Ron English and publicized by Yosi Sergant, fuses his features with Abraham Lincoln's. Obama's vaunted regard for Doris Kearns Goodwin's “Team of Rivals” and his use of the Lincoln Memorial as the site for his star-studded pre-inaugural concert (presented in the best tradition of bread-and-circus politics) also led to souvenir coins with images of both the 16th and 44th presidents.

Few in the American media stopped to ask what this all really meant. But we might get a better idea when we think about how 1st-century emperor Caligula's mint issued coins featuring his portrait alongside those of his more venerated predecessors; how early 2nd-century emperor Trajan modeled his image on Rome's apotheosized rulers; and how 4th-century emperor Constantine appropriated the monuments of previous “good emperors” to enhance his own esteem.

Obama's Roman counterparts also wrote messages on their coins: simple, positive themes that varied from emperor to emperor. Hadrian, for example, the worldly second-century emperor who withdrew the Roman army from Iraq, engraved his coins with the words CONCORDIA (union); RESTITUTOR (restorer or renewer); and, most strikingly, SPES (hope).”

Obama’s portrayal by the Christian Science Monitor of being a modern-day Roman Emperor, also, eerily mirrors that anti-Christian empire of old, with a Colorado museum now exhibiting a painting of Jesus Christ receiving homosexual oral sex while at the same time the US Supreme Court has banned the singing in American schools of the Christmas time song Silent Night for all time, all occurring at the same time this American leader is defending the rights of Muslims to build a Mosque near their sacred site New York site of 9/11.

And for those American people believing it couldn’t get worse? They couldn’t be more mistaken as new reports from the United States are now warning that Obama has ordered his Federal police officials to instruct all of their citizens to immediately report any posting critical of either Obama or the US government, and which we can only assume means this report too.

The great American Founding Father Thomas Jefferson once said, “All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent.”…the silence from America today is deafening.

潤・October 7, 2010 EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked back to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com.


 
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テーマ : 伝えたいこと - ジャンル : 日記

バーナンキが真実を述べる

 
いつまで騙し続けられるのでしょうか?

合衆国が崖っぷちにいることをバーナンキが述べています。
現役のFRB議長だけに、言葉の重みが違います。

かつて金融危機に対して「空からお金をばら撒けばよい」と同氏が述べたのは有名な話です。
でも、いつまでも続かないことは明らかです。

ヘリコプター・ベン


合衆国政府だけでなく、州政府さらには地方自治体も危険な状態です。
おそらくどこかで火を噴けば、ドミノ倒しで崩壊することになるでしょう。

そして、それは全世界を撒き込む事態になるはずです。




英訳はこちら
http://www.excite.co.jp/world/english/



Bernanke Tells the Truth: The United States is on the Brink of Financial Disaster
(注:バーナンキが真実を述べる:合衆国は、金融大災害の崖っぷちにいる)
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/10/bernanke-tells-truth-united-states-is.html
Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered a speech before the the Annual Meeting of the Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council in Providence, Rhode Island. In the speech, he warned about the current state of the government finances. His conclusion, the situation is dire and "unsustainable".
(注:彼の結論:状況は悲惨で持続不可能である)


It is remarkable that mainstream media has given this speech no coverage. I repeat, the central banker of the United States says in his own words:

Let me return to the issue of longer-term fiscal sustainability. As I have discussed, projections by the CBO and others show future budget deficits and debts rising indefinitely, and at increasing rates. To be sure, projections are to some degree only hypothetical exercises. Almost by definition, unsustainable trajectories of deficits and debts will never actually transpire, because creditors would never be willing to lend to a country in which the fiscal debt relative to the national income is rising without limit. Herbert Stein, a wise economist, once said, "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop."9 One way or the other, fiscal adjustments sufficient to stabilize the federal budget will certainly occur at some point. The only real question is whether these adjustments will take place through a careful and deliberative process that weighs priorities and gives people plenty of time to adjust to changes in government programs or tax policies, or whether the needed fiscal adjustments will be a rapid and painful response to a looming or actual fiscal crisis.
This is as close as you are ever going to see a central banker admit that his country's financial situation is so dire that it could breakup at any time.

Here's more from Bernanke's remarkable speech:

The recent deep recession and the subsequent slow recovery have created severe budgetary pressures not only for many households and businesses, but for governments as well. Indeed, in the United States, governments at all levels are grappling not only with the near-term effects of economic weakness, but also with the longer-run pressures that will be generated by the need to provide health care and retirement security to an aging population. There is no way around it--meeting these challenges will require policymakers and the public to make some very difficult decisions and to accept some sacrifices. But history makes clear that countries that continually spend beyond their means suffer slower growth in incomes and living standards and are prone to greater economic and financial instability.
Now, get this, he warns that it is not only the Federal government that has financial problems, but also states and local governments:


(注:最近の悪性の不況とその後の遅い回復は多くの家庭とビジネスだけではなく、また、政府に対しても厳しい予算の圧力を引き起こしました。 本当に、合衆国では、すべてのレベルにおける政府は経済的弱点の短期間効果で取っ組み合うだけではなく、健康管理と引退にセキュリティを提供する必要性で高齢者人口に発生するより長い経営の圧力でも取っ組み合っています。 そこの周りに道が全くありません--これらの挑戦を満たすのは、政策立案者と公衆がいくつかの非常に難しい決定をして、いくつかの犠牲を受け入れるのを必要とするでしょう。 しかし、歴史は、それらの手段で絶えず費やされる国が、収入と生活水準で、より遅い成長を受けて、よりすばらしい経済的、そして、財政的な不安定性の傾向があることを明らかにします。
今度は、これを手に入れてください、そして、彼は、それが経済問題を持っている連邦政府だけではなく、州と地方自治体でもあると警告します:)


Although state and local governments face significant fiscal challenges, my primary focus today will be the federal budget situation and its economic implications.
Does Bernanke see the tsunami hitting or what?

Then, he put things in historical perspective:

The budgetary position of the federal government has deteriorated substantially during the past two fiscal years, with the budget deficit averaging 9-1/2 percent of national income during that time. For comparison, the deficit averaged 2 percent of national income for the fiscal years 2005 to 2007, prior to the onset of the recession and financial crisis. The recent deterioration was largely the result of a sharp decline in tax revenues brought about by the recession and the subsequent slow recovery, as well as by increases in federal spending needed to alleviate the recession and stabilize the financial system. As a result of these deficits, the accumulated federal debt measured relative to national income has increased to a level not seen since the aftermath of World War II.
Then, he explains the deterioration and the problems it will create for the entire economy:

For now, the budget deficit has stabilized and, so long as the economy and financial markets continue to recover, it should narrow relative to national income over the next few years. Economic conditions provide little scope for reducing deficits significantly further over the next year or two; indeed, premature fiscal tightening could put the recovery at risk. Over the medium- and long-term, however, the story is quite different. If current policy settings are maintained, and under reasonable assumptions about economic growth, the federal budget will be on an unsustainable path in coming years, with the ratio of federal debt held by the public to national income rising at an increasing pace.2 Moreover, as the national debt grows, so will the associated interest payments, which in turn will lead to further increases in projected deficits. Expectations of large and increasing deficits in the future could inhibit current household and business spending--for example, by reducing confidence in the longer-term prospects for the economy or by increasing uncertainty about future tax burdens and government spending--and thus restrain the recovery. Concerns about the government's long-run fiscal position may also constrain the flexibility of fiscal policy to respond to current economic conditions.
Then, he tells us how powerful the negative trends are and how the aging population and Obamacare are going to make things worse:

Our fiscal challenges are especially daunting because they are mostly the product of powerful underlying trends, not short-term or temporary factors. Two of the most important driving forces are the aging of the U.S. population, the pace of which will intensify over the next couple of decades as the baby-boom generation retires, and rapidly rising health-care costs. As the health-care needs of the aging population increase, federal health-care programs are on track to be by far the biggest single source of fiscal imbalances over the longer term. Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the ratio of federal spending for health-care programs (principally Medicare and Medicaid) to national income will double over the next 25 years, and continue to rise significantly further after that...he aging of the U.S. population will also strain Social Security, as the number of workers paying taxes into the system rises more slowly than the number of people receiving benefits. This year, there are about five individuals between the ages of 20 and 64 for each person aged 65 and older. By 2030, when most of the baby boomers will have retired, this ratio is projected to decline to around 3, and it may subsequently fall yet further as life expectancies continue to increase. Overall, the projected fiscal pressures associated with Social Security are considerably smaller than the pressures associated with federal health programs, but they still present a significant challenge to policymakers.
Then he goes back to warn that the financial mess also exists at the state and local level:

The same underlying trends affecting federal finances will also put substantial pressures on state and local budgets, as organizations like yours have helped to highlight. In Rhode Island, as in other states, the retirement of state employees, together with continuing increases in health-care costs, will cause public pension and retiree health-care obligations to become increasingly difficult to meet. Estimates of unfunded pension liabilities for the states as whole span a wide range, but some researchers put the figure as high as $2 trillion at the end of 2009.5 Estimates of states' liabilities for retiree health benefits are even more uncertain because of the difficulty of projecting medical costs decades into the future. However, one recent estimate suggests that state governments have a collective liability of almost $600 billion for retiree health benefits. These health benefits have usually been handled on a pay-as-you-go basis and therefore could impose a substantial fiscal burden in coming years as large numbers of state workers retire.
Bernanke then breaks the news that the problem is global:

It may be scant comfort, but the United States is not alone in facing fiscal challenges. The global recession has dealt a blow to the fiscal positions of most other advanced economies, and, as in the United States, their expenditures for public health care and pensions are expected to rise substantially in the coming decades as their populations age. Indeed, the population of the United States overall is younger than those of a number of European countries as well as Japan.
Bernanke then re-emphasises, the damage this will do to the overall economy:

Failing to address our unsustainable fiscal situation exposes our country to serious economic costs and risks. In the short run, as I have noted, concerns and uncertainty about exploding future deficits could make households, businesses, and investors more cautious about spending, capital investment, and hiring. In the longer term, a rising level of government debt relative to national income is likely to put upward pressure on interest rates and thus inhibit capital formation, productivity, and economic growth. Larger government deficits increase our reliance on foreign lenders, all else being equal, implying that the share of U.S. national income devoted to paying interest to foreign investors will increase over time. Income paid to foreign investors is not available for domestic consumption or investment. And an increasingly large cost of servicing a growing national debt means that the adjustments, when they come, could be sharp and disruptive. For example, large tax increases that might be imposed to cover the rising interest on the debt would slow potential growth by reducing incentives to work, save, hire, and invest.


He then states that we do not know how much time is left before all hell breaks loose:

It would be difficult to identify a specific threshold at which federal debt begins to pose more substantial costs and risks to the nation's economy. Perhaps no bright line exists; the costs and risks may grow more or less continuously as the federal debt rises. What we do know, however, is that the threat to our economy is real and growing, which should be sufficient reason for fiscal policymakers to put in place a credible plan for bringing deficits down to sustainable levels over the medium term.
From there,Bernanke goes into a bit of wishful thinking by identifying ways Congress can rein in spending and make the tax system more efficient. Good luck with all of that.

The real important part of Bernanke's speech is the first half where he warns of the financial crisis just ahead.


 

テーマ : 伝えたいこと - ジャンル : 日記

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