今後の世界情勢予測 －まとめ－

　
今後の世界情勢の予測をまとめているサイトがありましたので、以下に紹介します。


ChemBlog-ケムログさんのサイト
和訳の部分、全文引用
原典は、こちら。
後半の英文の部分は、上記の和訳にはない部分です。
要点だけ、赤字表示＆和訳しました。

表題どおり、どれかひとつでも当たったら、本当に大変なことになります。
５月というキーワードが、多く見受けられます。
今回の暴落を指しているようです。
また、戦争に関する記述も、多く見受けます。

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ハリー・デント Harry Dent（投資家）
2番底があるとしたら2010年末だろう。不況がやってくる（それは2010年夏頃に始まる）。目下のところ株式市場は、上昇傾向と活発な経済活動の恩恵を受けており、現在の株価水準である10.090から10,700～11,500の範囲でダウを押し上げるという、非常に短期の好ましい方向へ向いているとデントは見ている。しかしその一方で、重大な株式下落の後に（それは3月の初めから4月下旬に始まる）市場は壁に突き当たるのだという。この年末にダウは、3,000～5,000の範囲にまで下落し、彼の予測ではそれは3,800前後ではないかという。

ジョセフ・マイヤー(Joseph Meyer)
経済に関する予測。彼は実際に起きている不動産市場の継続的な下落を観測しており、人々に銀行閉鎖に備えて家の安全な場所に現金を保管するだけでなく、貴金属や日用品なども購入するようアドバイスしている。株式市場は、3月か4月にピーク（10.850前後）に達した後、一気に2,450から4,125にまで下落するのだという。

LEAP 20/20
欧州の25人の経済専門家からなる、的中率90％の団体が発表した2010年の展望 - 2010年下半期に、2009年後半に一時的な「凍結」を招いたような事象と、過去数年継続している一時的な救済策の緩和という二重の影響によって、突発的な恐慌の激化を予想している。世界規模の金融市場で完全無欠の（経済）嵐が到来し、米国では避けられない金利の圧縮が発生する。西側諸国の金融システムへのゼロコストマネーの注射は、経済の再起動に失敗する。ゼロコストマネー政策にも関わらず、システムは行き詰まる。エリオット波動(Elliott Wave)用語でスーパー・サイクル・ウェーブ・スリー(Super Cycle Wave Three)、或いは標準用語で言う「我々全てが一緒にカールに乗れるほど大きな」次の巨大な下降の波に向かってゆっくりと寝返りを打つ。


ウェブボット(Webbots)
7月及びその先、物事は非常に奇妙になる。革命が起こり、2010年11月までにドルは終了する。

ナイザーコープ(Neithercorps)
経済崩壊の第3段階と最終段階が2010年のある時に始まる。ある種の財政的な奇跡及び、連邦準備制度の完全な解散を除いて、雪合戦式内部崩壊は今年の末までに目に見えるようになるだろう。IMFと同調した政府の振る舞いは、数年どころか数週間、或いは数ヶ月以内に頂点に達する崩壊、最もありそうなのはドルの暴落に焦点をあてて準備しているかのように見える。

Igor Panarin
1998年夏、大統領付属政府通信情報庁(APSI)の同僚のアナリストによって提供された、米国経済及び社会の状態に関する機密情報を基に、Panarinは2010年に米国が6つに分解される可能性があると予測した（2010年6月末、或いは7月初めになると、彼は2000年12月10日に明記した）

ボブ・チャップマン(Bob Chapman)
2010年の初めの6ヶ月間、まだアメリカ人は「虚構」の中に生きている。7月から10月の期間に経済の花火大会が始まる。連邦政府は、どのような政治的意味合いとは関係なく、自身が生き残るために一方的な行動を取るようになる（情報源は連邦政府会議の内通者による）。その年の第四四半期には、恐らく2011年の最初の6ヶ月間続くことになる、戒厳令が施行されるだろう。連邦預金保険公社(FDIC)は、2010年9月に破綻する。商業用不動産は、2010年に崩壊することになる。2010年中に債権市場、とりわけ地方債は100％崩壊する危険があると、ウォール・ストリートは考えている。ドルは2010年の末までに切り下げられるだろう。

Gerald Celente
テロ攻撃があり「2010年の崩壊」が起きる。初めに40％の通貨の切り下げがあり、これが1929年の世界大恐慌よりも酷い大恐慌をもたらす。


Unnamed Economist working for US Gov’t (GLP)
What we have experienced the last two years is nothing to what we are going to experience this year. If you have a job now…you may not have it in three to six months. (by August 2010). Stock market will fall = great depression. Foreign investors stop financing debt = collapse. 6.2 million are about to lose their unemployment.　　
（注：８月まではもつが、その後株式市場は崩落する）

Lindsey Williams
Dollar devalued 30-50% by end of year. It will become very difficult for the average American to afford to buy even food. This was revealed to him through an Illuminati insider.
（注：ドルは年末までに３０－５０％減価する）

Peter Schiff (3/13/2010)
“In my opinion, the market is now perfectly positioned for a massive dollar sell-off. The fundamentals for the dollar in 2010 are so much worse than they were in 2008 that it is hard to imagine a reason for people to keep buying once a modicum of political and monetary stability can be restored in Europe. In fact, the euro has recently stabilized. My gut is that the dollar sell-off will be sharp and swift. Once the dollar decisively breaks below last year’s lows, many of the traders who jumped ship in the recent rally will look to re-establish their positions. This will accelerate the dollar’s descent and refocus everyone’s attention back on thefinancial train-wreck unfolding in the United States. Any doubts about the future of the U.S. dollar should be laid to rest by today’s announcement that San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen has been nominated to be Vice Chair of the Fed’s Board of Governors, and thereby a voter on the interest rate-setting, seven-member Open Markets Committee. Ms. Yellen has earned a reputation for being one of the biggest inflation doves among the Fed’s top players.” Schiff is famous for his accurate predictions of theeconomic events of 2008.
（注：市場は、ドル大安売りの方向へポジションを作っている）

James Howard Kunstler (January 2010)
The economy as we’ve known it simply can’t go on, which James Howard Kunstler has been saying all along. The shenanigans with stimulus and bailouts will just compound the central problem with debt. There’s not much longer to go before the whole thing collapses and dies. Six Months to Live-The economy that is. Especially the part that consists of swapping paper certificates. That’s the buzz I’ve gotten the first two weeks of 2010.
（注：完全な崩壊と死へ。経済が生きているのはあと６ヶ月（６月末まで））

Richard Mogey
Current Research Director at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles- Because of a convergence of numerous cycles all at once, the stock market may go up for a little while, but will crash in 2010 and reach all-time lows late 2012. Mogey says that the 2008 crash was nothing compared to the coming crash. Gold may correct in 2009, but will go up in 2010 and peak in 2011. Silver will follow gold.
（注：株式市場は２０１０年に崩落する。次回の崩落は２００８年の比ではない）

Robert Prechter
Founder of Elliott Wave International, implores retail investors stay away from the markets… for now. Prechter, who was bullish near the lows in March 2009, now says the stock market “is in a topping area.”predicting another crash in 2010 that will bring stocks below the 2009 low. His word to the wise, “be patient, don’t rush it” keep your money in cash and cash equivalents.
（注：株式市場は２０１０年に崩壊し、２００９年安値を下回る。現金（同等物）を持て）

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
In my estimation, there is still close to an 80% probability (Bayes’ Rule) that a second market plunge and economic downturn will unfold during 2010.
（注：２０１０年から、市場は下降へ突入する）

Robin Landry (Market Expert)
I believe we are headed to new market highs between 10780-11241 over the next few months. The most likely time frame for the top is the April-May area. Remember the evidence IMHO still says we are in a bear market rally with a major decline to follow once this rally ends.
（市場は11780-11241が天井、時期は4-5月。まだ、ベアラリー中）

Alpha-Omega Report (Trends Forecast)
Going into 2010, the trends seemed to lead nowhere or towards oblivion. Geo-politically, the Middle East was and is trending towards some sort of military clash, most likely by mid-year, but perhaps sooner…At the moment, it seems 2010 is shaping up to be a year of absolute chaos. We see trends for war between Israel and her neighbors that will shake every facet of human activity…In the event of war, we see all other societal trends being thoroughly disrupted…Iran will most likely shut off the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf. This will have immense consequences for the world’s economy. Oil prices will skyrocket into the stratosphere and become so expensive that world’s economies will collapse..There are also trend indicators alongeconomic lines that point to the potential for a total meltdown of the world’s financial system with major crisis points developing with the change of each quarter of the year. 2010 could be a meltdown year for the world’s economy, regardless of what goes on in the Middle East.
（注：地政学的に、中東で軍事衝突が起こる。時期は２０１０年の中頃かそれよりも少し早く。イスラエルと近隣諸国の戦争はあらゆる局面をもひどく揺さぶる）

Eric deCarbonnel
There is no precedence for the panic and chaos that will occur in 2010. The global food supply/demand picture has NEVER been so out of balance. The 2010 food crisis will rearrange economic, financial, and political order of the world, and those who aren’t prepared will suffer terrible losses…As the dollar loses most of its value, America’s savings will be wiped out. The US service economy will disintegrate as consumer spending in real terms (ie: gold or other stable currencies) drops like a rock, bringing unemployment to levels exceeding the great depression. Public health services/programs will be cut back, as individuals will have no savings/credit/income to pay for medical care. Value of most investments will be wiped out. The US debt markets will freeze again, this time permanently. There will be no buyers except at the most drastic of firesale prices, and inflation will wipe away value before credit markets have any chance at recovery. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. Since global derivatives markets operate on the assumption of the continued stable value of the dollar and short term US debt, using derivatives to bet against the dollar is NOT a good idea. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. The dollar’s collapse will rob US consumers of all purchasing power, and any investment depend on US consumption will lose most of its value.
（注：２０１０年にはデリバティブが価値を失いパニックになる）

WALL STREET JOURNAL- (2/2010)
“You are witnessing a fundamental breakdown of the American dream, a systemic breakdown of our democracy and our capitalism, a breakdown driven by the blind insatiable greed of Wall Street: Dysfunctional government, insane markets, economy on the brink. Multiply that many times over and see a world in total disarray. Ignore it now, tomorrow will be too late.”
（注：完全に無秩序化した世界を見るだろう）

Lyndon Larouche
The crisis is accelerating and will become worse week by week until the whole system grinds into a collapse, likely sometime this year. And when it does, it will be the greatest collapse since the fall of the Roman Empire.
（注：ローマ帝国が崩壊したように、大崩壊が起こるだろう）

Niño Becerra (Professor of Economics)
Predicted in July 2007 that what was going to happen was that by mid 2010 there is going to be a crisis only comparable to the one in 1929. From October 2009 to May 2010 people will begin to see things are not working out the way the government thought. In May of 2010, the crisis starts with all its force and continues and strengthens throughout 2011. He accurately predicted the current recession and market crash to the month.
（注：２０１０年５月に、危機が始まる）

Richard Russell (Market Expert)
(from 2/3/10) says the bear market rally is in the process of breaking up and panic is on the way. He sees a full correction of the entire rise from the 2002 low of 7,286 to the bull market high of 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007. The halfway level of retracement was 10,725. The total retracement was to 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009. He now sees the Dow falling to 7,286 and if that level does not hold, “I see it sinking to its 1980-82 area low of Dow 1,000.” The current action is the worst he has ever seen. (Bob Chapman says for Russell to make such a startling statement is unusual because he never cries wolf and is almost never wrong)
（注：ダウは１０００ドルまで下がるだろう）